In the blood-stained aftermath of the coup in the blighted land of Myanmar, it has been my lot to engage in a six-month run of interviews and panels, which are ongoing. Not moving away from Yangon, I see it as my responsibility to share the view from the ground – with the attendant risks of course.
Taking no side except that of the Myanmar citizen, it has not been a pleasant experience. And now it is time to write something ‘foundational’, beyond the everyday assessments, important as they are.
At the end of my many expositions, a common (and natural) question from the hosts is “what happens next – what do you see ahead for your country?”
Here too I have to be scrupulously frank and eschew any colouring, optimistic or otherwise. More than for the audiences, I think this matters most for the people of Myanmar who have suffered deeply and long, and who now have to pick themselves up yet again (if they can, amidst the raging COVID-19 pandemic and the war).
If a well-meaning person were to advocate for dialogue and reconciliation at this time, the prescriptions would not sit well with the deeper shifts set in motion by the coup. That is the stark dissonance of the present. I would say most people within the country instinctively sense that it is a different game now, not comparable with even the other uprising – that of 1988. This has to be recognised if a fresh path is to be laid out, and a fresh path is necessary despite or because of, the staggering setbacks.
The nation’s life has to go on. What cannot go on are the kind of unimaginative re-hashings that both the military and the political parties are guilty of. The junta’s announcements on 1 August of creating a ‘caretaker government’ with the Commander-in-Chief as the Prime Minister drew a lot of public scorn; for Myanmar the past cannot be prologue anymore.
In looking at institutions, concepts and doctrines in Myanmar, let us start with the military – that self-styled vanguard that has so much of its countrymen’s blood on its hands. It defies reason and exists in a post-truth world of its own. What it has achieved in the past six months is to go beyond the point of no return.
In the Myanmar military, one sees a powerful institution that has clearly over-reached itself, in the way that empires do. And as we all know, the collapse or breakup of empires is not a neat affair (it does not have to be sudden either). But there is an inevitability to it and there is something inexorable about it. The complete story is for historians to chronicle in days to come.
Then, there is the federal system for which half the country has been longing for and fighting for. Although it was brought on to the political stage in 2011, and efforts devoted over two government terms to lay out the blueprint, the result has fallen far short.
Also read ‘Myanmar’s Ongoing Agony: Time to Heed the Lessons of History‘
With the gloomy events this year, the question has definitely moved on – to whether the system itself is viable anymore for Myanmar. Not because the military is opposed to it, but with the altered terms and rules, we have to look at what lies beyond mere federalism. No more waiting for federalism to be ‘granted’ from Naypyitaw – indeed, anything originating from there being regarded as less-than-credible. A new disposition has to be established.
This brings us to the nation-state concept, which is being questioned and re-evaluated elsewhere in the world. Myanmar’s myriad problems are the subject of much lamentation. It is time to recognise that the ethnic persecution and war stem from attempting to stuff the whole country into the box of a majoritarian nation-state. It is not just unviable, but also inapplicable.
Strangely enough, democracy in Myanmar is not on the throwaway list. Not only is it alive and kicking, it has been strengthened – on the streets and by the people, as it really should be.
One may ask: if so many foundations are crumbling, does it mean anarchy? From Naypyitaw’s perspective, it could well be. At the same time, this is what the Spring Revolution is about, and what all revolutions are about.
Despite the ardent aspirations and misguided efforts of the centralists, Burma or Myanmar did not become a nation. Indeed, many shades to the contrary have emerged or are emerging – autonomy, confederal, semi-independent. A central authority to hold it together evaporated this year. And none of the old dispensations can reassert that cohesion.
That is why I have to reiterate that a search for something entirely new has to happen. A lot of people will be uncomfortable with such state of affairs. The junta is keeping up appearances with brutality and blandishments, but how long can this last?
What had essentially been a political squabble between the top military and party leaders had brought the country and perhaps the region to this pass. It says an awful lot about the quality and outlook of that sorry bunch that styles itself as ‘leaders’. In the off-chance that they realize the gravity of what they have collectively done and perhaps, seek a settlement, the matter might be resolved.
But, a lot of blood has already been spilled, and lives broken and scarred. The over-riding motivation, unfortunately, is to carry things to the end. I don’t want to have to presage this grim future but I have to be realistic too. A close friend has expressed hopes for a ‘black swan’ occurrence and we shouldn’t rule that out either.
Views expressed are the author’s own.
Featured image (foreground): A ‘Lady Justice’ cosplayer in an anti-coup protest in Yangon, 11 February 2021 | Wikimedia Commons
is the director of Tampadipa Institute, a policy organisation based in Yangon. He was a political prisoner for eleven years during Myanmar’s military dictatorship.
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