Days before being appointed the Deputy Foreign Minister in the Interim Taliban government, Sher Mohammed Abbas Stanekzai, in a video posted on Taliban’s social media platforms, made a strong pitch for robust India-Afghanistan ties.
During the video, Stanekzai, who was trained at the Indian Military Academy (IMA), also said that the Taliban government would encourage bilateral trade relations between India and Afghanistan through air corridors, as well as the land route via Pakistan. Notably, while Islamabad has permitted Afghan goods to enter India via Wagah, it has not allowed Indian goods to be exported to Afghanistan through it’s territory.
Trade between India and Afghanistan was estimated at 1.5 billion USD in 2019-2020. After the take over by the Taliban last month, trade between both countries was severely disrupted, with banks and borders shutting down.
Stanekzai also referred to the Chabahar Port project, in which India has invested significantly and which is run by India Ports Global Limited. Chabahar, located in southeastern Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan Province, is critical for India’s access to Afghanistan, including trade with Kabul. India has used the port to ship consignments to Afghanistan. In fact, during the COVID-19 pandemic, India sent humanitarian aid worth 75,000 tonnes.
On a number of occasions, Iran has complained about the slow progress from India’s side on the project as well as delays in funding. Yet, in recent months, New Delhi has started paying more attention to its relations with Tehran, including on the Chabahar Project. The triumph of Joe Biden in last year’s US Presidential election and the belief that the US would return to the Iran nuclear deal (or JCPOA) was one of the main reasons behind India’s renewed focus on the port project.
Iran has also been one of the countries that has repeatedly spoken about the importance of India in the context of Afghanistan. President Ebrahim Raisi, who recently took charge as the President of Iran, had made this point during his meeting with India’s Foreign Minister, S Jaishankar, in August 2021. Jaishankar had attended Raisi’s swearing-in.
It remains to be seen how the economic relationship between Afghanistan and India pans out under the Taliban. While the organisation has spoken in favour of close economic ties, it isn’t yet clear if Pakistan, which has a strong influence on the current government in Kabul, allows trade through its territory. Apart from this, air corridors have been an important means of trade between both countries. India and Afghanistan had set up three corridors from New Delhi-Kabul, Mumbai-Kabul and Delhi-Herat. It is believed that commercial flights from Pakistan to Afghanistan are likely to begin soon, though there is no clarity on the date.
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It also remains to be seen whether the Taliban government gives a fillip to greater trilateral connectivity between India, Afghanistan and Iran. The Taliban has already spoken in favour of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its role in the country’s economic growth. A Taliban spokesperson, Zabiullah Mujahid, has also expressed interest in Afghanistan joining the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Beijing also took notice of this and in a statement issued before the interim government took over, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said:
‘…The Afghan Taliban believes that the BRI is good for development and prosperity in Afghanistan and the broader region.’
While the Taliban has spoken about better ties with all countries, in the short run, it is likely to be economically dependent upon China. There is no doubt that Beijing and Islamabad are likely to exert maximum influence to boost their clout in Afghanistan.
The Doha group, which consists of individuals like Stanikzai, seems to have been out-manuevred if one were to look at the composition of the interim government. It remains to be seen if this group will have a say in foreign policy, especially in the context of ties with India and the need to maintain a balanced foreign policy instead of being dependent on one or two countries. Both Russia and Iran have underscored the importance of India in reconstruction of Afghanistan and their role too will be important in consolidating Afghanistan-India ties.
These are still early days, but India would be closely watching the foreign policy moves of the Taliban government and whether it adopts a pragmatic approach in cultivating strong bilateral economic relations with all its neighbours, or allows Pakistan and China to dictate its future. So far, statements from Taliban spokespersons indicate that it will depend the most on Beijing.
Mujahid, in a recent interview to an Italian paper, said:
“China is our most important partner and represents a fundamental and extraordinary opportunity for us because it is ready to invest and rebuild our country.“
Apart from this, New Delhi needs to focus on building greater autonomy in its relations with Iran, and not allow the US to dictate its bilateral relations, if it really wants to preserve its geopolitical interests in Afghanistan. In a rapidly shifting regional environment, India needs to be prompt and decisive.
Views expressed are the author’s own.
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Tridivesh Singh Maini is a Delhi-based political and policy commentator, currently affiliated with the OP Jindal Global University.
